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Recovery goes on with 2.2% annual growth and falling unemployment rates

10/31/2009

 
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The Japanese economy is expected to show annualized real growth of 2.2 percent in the July-September period for the second consecutive quarterly expansion due partly to robust exports, according to eight private think tanks polled by Kyodo News. Also jobless figures hit a four-month showing further rise out of the economic crisis.

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The projected annualized expansion in terms of real gross domestic product corresponds to growth of 0.5 percent from the previous quarter. The nation's economy grew an annualized 2.3 percent in the April-June period.

In addition to exports, which are continuing to spearhead growth, stimulus measures such as tax breaks for fuel-efficient vehicles and the "eco-point" subsidy program for energy-efficient electric appliances have boosted private consumption, the think tanks said.

The Cabinet Office is scheduled to release its preliminary figures for Japan's GDP in the July-September quarter on Nov. 16.  Some of the think tanks are predicting that domestic demand will likely play a greater role in economic growth in the third quarter, compared with the previous quarter, while others are anticipating that capital investment will also pick up in the July-September period after remaining sluggish in recent quarters.

To confirm expectations the Internal Affairs Ministry released data showing that Japan's unemployment rate fell to a four-month low of 5.3 percent in September, beating the market expectation that it would rise to 5.6 percent.

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A separate survey released by the Labour Ministry Friday showed there were 43 job offers for every 100 jobseekers in September, slightly up from a record low of 42 in the previous two months. It is the first time since May 2007 that the job-offer ratio has improved from the previous month.


Many Japanese companies, particularly exporters, moved swiftly to cut jobs and production in response to a slump in demand caused by the global economic downturn. But since Japan's economy grew in April-June for the first time in five quarters on rebounding exports and government stimulus measures employment is straightly rising up again.

Yet another survey from the Internal affairs ministry showed deflation in Japan eased slightly in September following four straight months of record declines in consumer prices. Core prices, which exclude those of volatile fresh food, dropped 2.3 percent in the month from a year earlier, after an unprecedented 2.4 percent slump in August. Compared with the previous month, prices rose 0.1 percent -- the first increase in six months.

Some economists warned against being too upbeat on the economic outlook. "There are concerns that price drops in services and other wide-ranging sectors may pressure wages, leading consumers to seek even lower prices," Credit Suisse economists wrote in a report.
"A further credit easing is needed" as deflation remains, they said. (Breitbart)


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